East Coast
Offense

East Coast Offense

The Tide Table

The call sheet. Each situation has a menu, each play on it has a weight, and the weights turn into ranges from 00 to 99. A random two-digit number picks the play, then the formation, the side and the motion.

How a call is rolled
  1. A two-digit number from 00 to 99 picks the play from the situation’s roll ranges.
  2. The formation is drawn from that play’s own mix of formations. In the heavy situations (3rd or 4th and 1; Goal line, 5 and in; Backed up, own 1 to 10; Four-minute, protecting a lead) Jetty’s share counts three times.
  3. The side is an even chance, Right or Left.
  4. Tide motion is added at that play’s motion share.

Base weights by situation

Percent of calls, with all three roster dials at 50. Each row adds up to 100, and a dot means the play is off that menu.

Five runsSix passesSplit
SituationNor’easterUndertowRiptideBreakerKeelGaleBuoyBoardwalkJabFour WindsSlipwayRunPass
1st and 10 2214144·14121262· 5446
2nd and 1 to 3 1810106622121222· 5050
2nd and 4 to 6 2014144·10121410·2 5248
2nd and 7 or more 1212122·1210141268 3862
3rd or 4th and 1 18461838484··· 8416
3rd and 2 to 6 1212108·612161824 4258
3rd and 7 or more 486··12612102220 1882
Red zone, 20 to 6 2214148·614148·· 5842
Goal line, 5 and in 226102216·1212··· 7624
Backed up, own 1 to 10 30126101281246·· 7030
Four-minute, protecting a lead 341862010·66··· 8812
Two-minute, need points 4642·141012201810 1684

Every menu, with its roll ranges

1st and 10
54% run · 46% pass

Run first, but nearly half the calls are passes and almost all of those are play-action, the most productive kind of dropback in the NFL data.

PlayShareWeightRoll
Nor’easter22%00–21
Undertow14%22–35
Riptide14%36–49
Breaker4%50–53
Gale14%54–67
Buoy12%68–79
Boardwalk12%80–91
Jab6%92–97
Four Winds2%98–99
3rd or 4th and 1
84% run · 16% pass

Sneaks convert about 83 to 86 percent of the time in the NFL against roughly 66 to 69 percent for other calls. Keel leads, with enough else that the defense cannot sell out.

PlayShareWeightRoll
Nor’easter18%00–17
Undertow4%18–21
Riptide6%22–27
Breaker18%28–45
Keel38%46–83
Gale4%84–87
Buoy8%88–95
Boardwalk4%96–99
3rd and 7 or more
18% run · 82% pass

The one situation where play-action loses its edge. Four Winds and Slipway carry it, with a run kept alive so the rush cannot tee off.

PlayShareWeightRoll
Nor’easter4%00–03
Undertow8%04–11
Riptide6%12–17
Gale12%18–29
Buoy6%30–35
Boardwalk12%36–47
Jab10%48–57
Four Winds22%58–79
Slipway20%80–99
Red zone, 20 to 6
58% run · 42% pass

The field is shorter, so the deep shot fades and Buoy and Boardwalk take its place. Finishing drives is one of the five factors that decide games.

PlayShareWeightRoll
Nor’easter22%00–21
Undertow14%22–35
Riptide14%36–49
Breaker8%50–57
Gale6%58–63
Buoy14%64–77
Boardwalk14%78–91
Jab8%92–99
Goal line, 5 and in
76% run · 24% pass

Power, with the quarterback as an extra runner. A quarter of the calls are still passes off the same look.

PlayShareWeightRoll
Nor’easter22%00–21
Undertow6%22–27
Riptide10%28–37
Breaker22%38–59
Keel16%60–75
Buoy12%76–87
Boardwalk12%88–99
Backed up, own 1 to 10
70% run · 30% pass

Ball security first. No screens and no deep drops near your own goal line.

PlayShareWeightRoll
Nor’easter30%00–29
Undertow12%30–41
Riptide6%42–47
Breaker10%48–57
Keel12%58–69
Gale8%70–77
Buoy12%78–89
Boardwalk4%90–93
Jab6%94–99
Four-minute, protecting a lead
88% run · 12% pass

Stay in bounds and keep the clock moving. Use Cruise tempo and snap late in the play clock.

PlayShareWeightRoll
Nor’easter34%00–33
Undertow18%34–51
Riptide6%52–57
Breaker20%58–77
Keel10%78–87
Buoy6%88–93
Boardwalk6%94–99

Where each play is called from

Formation mix and Tide motion are shares of that play’s calls. The last three columns show which roster strength moves the play’s weight: a play that leans entirely on one strength gains 48 percent at a dial of 90 and loses 48 percent at 10, and the menu is rescaled to 100.

Formation mix, %MotionLeans on, %
PlayHarborCapePierSoundJettyTide, %PowerSpeedAir
Nor’easterPower 4020151510 65 100··
UndertowCounter 452515·15 65 7030·
RiptideJet sweep 4535··20 100 ·100·
BreakerQuarterback power 40··2040 60 100··
KeelQuarterback sneak ····100 · 100··
GalePlay-action post and over 6020·20· 65 ·4060
BuoyPlay-action pop 5015·2015 50 50·50
BoardwalkBootleg 5015·2015 65 ·3070
JabQuick slant and flat ·5050·· · ··100
Four WindsFour verticals ·6040·· · ·3070
SlipwaySlip screen ·6040·· · ·4060
House rules
  1. Roll first. Call what comes up.
  2. You may throw out a roll for the clock, for a substitution or injury, or for a defensive look you can name before the snap. Then take the next number. Do not pick.
  3. Never throw out a roll because the last play failed. That is the habit the research found.
  4. Chart every roll you throw out. Past one in five, change the weights and keep rolling.
On game night

Roll a strip of calls for each situation before the game and carry them on the call sheet. The caller reads the next line down, so there is nothing to decide between plays and nothing for the defense to read in the caller’s habits.

After each game, compare success rate by play with its weight. Raise what is working by a few points and lower what is not. Keep every play above zero in the situations where it appears.

The Storm check

Each run has one paired pass from the same look and to the same side. Nor’easter and Breaker pair with Buoy. Undertow pairs with Boardwalk. Riptide pairs with Gale.

When the quarterback counts eight or more defenders in the box and the staff has cleared him to check, he calls “Storm” and the offense runs the paired pass.

Roll it for your team

With a free account the Tide Table tool sets the dials from your roster, lets you adjust any weight after a game, rolls strips for every situation and prints the call sheet. Coming in the next release; the PDF edition is available now.

Create a free account

Common questions

Questions coaches ask.

What is the Tide Table?
The call sheet. Each situation has a menu, each play on it has a weight, and the weights turn into ranges from 00 to 99. A random two-digit number picks the play, then the formation, the side and the motion.
What if the roll comes up with a bad call for the moment?
The house rules allow a roll to be thrown out for the clock, for a substitution or injury, or for a defensive look the caller can name before the snap. Then take the next number, do not pick. A roll is never thrown out because the last play failed, and every thrown-out roll is charted; past one in five, change the weights.
Where do the base weights come from?
From the research on the evidence page. Power carries the largest weight on early downs, play-action takes about four of every five pass calls on first down, the sneak leads with a yard to go, and third and long switches to Four Winds and Slipway. Each row adds up to 100.
How does the roster change the table?
Three dials, Power, Speed and Air, sit at 50 for an average roster and come from the role fit scores. A play that leans entirely on one strength gains 48 percent at a dial of 90 and loses 48 percent at 10, and the menu is rescaled to 100. The dials can also be set by hand.
How do you use it on game night?
Roll a strip of calls for each situation before the game and carry them on the call sheet. The caller reads the next line down, so there is nothing to decide between plays and nothing for the defense to read in the caller’s habits.
Can the same play come up twice in a row?
Yes, and it should sometimes. Repeats are what a random process produces and what human callers avoid. The defense cannot plan for a repeat it has learned never happens.
Can I roll strips and print a call sheet here?
With a free account the Tide Table tool rolls strips at your dials, lets you adjust weights after each game, and prints the sheet. This page shows the base table and every menu with its roll ranges.