Resources
The evidence behind the weights
Each design choice traces to a published finding. Almost all public play-by-play research uses NFL and college games, because no large public set of high school plays exists. Read these as the reason for each choice and treat the percentages on the call sheet as a first draft to correct with your own film.
- Play callers alternate run and pass more than chance would, especially after a failed play, and it costs them. Kovash and Levitt, NBER, 2009: about 125,000 NFL plays. Emara, Owens, Smith and Wilmer, 2017: 3,455 NFL games, 2000 to 2012.
- Calls are rolled against a weighted menu. Repeats are allowed, and a failed play never changes the next roll.
- Play-action gains more than a straight dropback, whether or not the team runs the ball well. Football Outsiders, 2018: 196 of 224 NFL team-seasons from 2011 to 2017 gained more per play with play-action. In 2016 it was 7.8 yards per play against 6.2, on only 18 percent of dropbacks. The one exception was third and long.
- Gale, Buoy and Boardwalk take about four of every five pass calls on first down. On third and long the menu switches to Four Winds and Slipway.
- A player in motion at the snap adds value on runs and passes. ESPN, 2019: 0.11 more expected points per designed run and 0.08 per pass, or 0.08 and 0.04 after adjusting for team quality. FiveThirtyEight, 2022: the edge shrank to 0.03 as motion spread, and heavy-motion teams drew more delay-of-game flags.
- One motion, by one player, on about two thirds of run and play-action calls. A single motion tied to the cadence keeps the timing simple.
- The number of defenders in the box explains most of what a run gains. FiveThirtyEight, 2019: field position and box count explain 96 percent of league-wide yards per carry. FTN, 2020 season: about 5 yards per carry against five or six in the box, under 4 against eight or more.
- Cape and Pier spread the same eleven players to pull defenders out of the box. Against eight in the box the quarterback has a one-word check to the paired pass.
- Power is the most productive of the common blocked runs. Pro Football Focus, NFL 2020 to 2022: Power averaged 4.53 yards per carry. Inside zone and counter averaged 3.90 and duo 3.71. Only draws averaged more.
- Nor’easter is the base play and carries the largest weight on early downs.
- Big pass plays come from tight formations, with motion and play-action, thrown 15 to 20 yards deep between the hashes. StatsBomb, now Hudl IQ, 2022: 2021 NFL and selected college games. The most explosive formation width was 18 yards, and motion added about three explosive passes per 100 attempts.
- Harbor is 19 yards wide. Gale is thrown off motion and a run fake into that same area of the field.
- With a yard to go, the quarterback sneak beats every other call. Pro Football Focus: 86.5 percent on sneaks against 68.7 percent on running back carries, on third or fourth and 1 between the 20-yard lines since 2007. Yale, 2015: 82.8 percent against 65.7 percent overall on more than 3,000 fourth-and-1 plays.
- Keel has the largest weight on third or fourth and 1. High school rules ban pushing the runner, so it is a wedge and never a push.
- Coaches kick too often on fourth down. Romer, Journal of Political Economy, 2006: on 1,068 NFL fourth downs where going for it was the better choice, teams kicked 959 times.
- Fourth and 1 has its own menu on the call sheet. Where on the field to use it stays the head coach’s decision.
- Explosive plays and efficiency decide games more than anything else an offense controls. Connelly, Five Factors, 2013 college games: the team that won explosiveness won 86 percent of the time, efficiency 83, finishing drives 75, turnovers 73, field position 72.
- The weekly grade is success rate and explosive plays. Total yards are left off the report.
- Speed separates starters at the skill positions. Momentum separates them among bigger players. Mann, Cowley and Weakley, Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 2025: 496 Division I players on the 40-yard dash, pro agility and L drill.
- Jet and Slip are chosen on sprint and shuttle times. Anchor and Hinge are chosen on body weight multiplied by speed.
Common questions
Questions coaches ask.
Why is the evidence from the NFL and college rather than high school?
Because almost all public play-by-play research uses NFL and college games. No large public set of high school plays exists. The findings set the direction of each weight; the exact numbers are a first draft to correct with your own film.
What does the research say about play-action?
That it gains more than a straight dropback whether or not the team runs well. Football Outsiders found 196 of 224 NFL team-seasons from 2011 to 2017 gained more per play with play-action, 7.8 yards against 6.2 in 2016, on only 18 percent of dropbacks. The one exception was third and long, which is why that menu switches to Four Winds and Slipway.
Does pre-snap motion really help?
Yes, modestly. ESPN measured 0.11 more expected points per designed run and 0.08 per pass with a player in motion at the snap. FiveThirtyEight later found the edge shrank to 0.03 as motion spread, and heavy-motion teams drew more delay-of-game flags, so this offense uses one motion by one player on about two thirds of run and play-action calls.
How much does the number of defenders in the box matter?
Enormously. Field position and box count explain 96 percent of league-wide yards per carry in FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, and FTN found about 5 yards per carry against five or six in the box but under 4 against eight or more. Cape and Pier spread the defense out, and against eight in the box the quarterback has a one-word check to the paired pass.
Why does the quarterback sneak get the biggest weight with a yard to go?
Because it converts 86.5 percent of the time against 68.7 percent for running back carries in PFF’s data since 2007, and 82.8 percent against 65.7 percent in a Yale study of more than 3,000 fourth-and-1 plays. High school rules ban pushing the runner, so Keel is a wedge and never a push.
What should a staff measure each week?
Success rate and explosive plays, because the team that wins explosiveness won 86 percent of the time and the team that wins efficiency 83 percent in Connelly’s Five Factors work. Total yards are deliberately left off the weekly report.
How were the role tests chosen?
From a 2025 Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research study of 496 Division I players: speed separates starters at the skill positions, and momentum (weight multiplied by speed) separates them among bigger players. So Jet and Slip are chosen on sprint and shuttle times, Anchor and Hinge on momentum.